‘A Critical Scenario’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now being felt in India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the vital shipping lane, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, pushing restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies grow. Restaurant kitchens appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply cannot be found," says a official of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the shortages are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are switching to solid fuels and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In a western metro, local news say up to a 20% of eateries are already fully or partly shut as cylinder availability dwindle. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some eateries say their cylinder inventory have shrunk with minimal reserves. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and nothing else - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers note a spike in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Authority's View

Yet, the government states there is sufficient stock.

India has more than 30 crore home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say supplies are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the war in the Gulf impact energy markets.

Approximately 60% of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about the vast majority of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.

The relevant department says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Commercial stock is being reserved for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been triggered by false reports. The regular refill period for domestic LPG remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the concern is spreading beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "Anxiety is palpable," the text reads.

According to reports from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The key weakness is cooking gas, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.

Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be somewhat alleviated through varied suppliers. Fuel availability remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the critical issue to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but patchy deliveries - and the common threat of panic buying.

An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.

"Distributors are misusing the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be protected by international market dynamics. But in restaurants across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next gas canister.